**Aware**

**What's the probability consumers will become aware of the product?**

Similar to the Global model, Gen-3 has an awareness sub-model to estimate the probability that a non-aware HH will become aware of the product.

Distribution awareness is based on Quantity, Quality and Purchase Frequency. It can be influenced by:

- External Factors - Item availability: Distribution quantity (PCW/ACV) and quality
- Internal Factors - The frequency of consumers to visit the store and shop for the category

Advertising awareness is based on Quantity and Quality and can be influenced by:

- External Factors - Advertising Quantity (eGRPs) and Advertising Quality (copy quality, it's potential to generate awareness)
- Internal Factors - Consumers' media viewing behavior

**Forget**

**What is the probability aware consumers will forget?**

Without ‘reminders’, consumers may forget (become non-aware). The forgetting factor is similar to awareness decay in the Global Model.

The likelihood of respondents to forget also depends on:

- External Factors - The absence of further GRP's leads to awareness decay
- Internal Factors - whether they have tried the sample and whether they have purchased the product

In Gen-3, we assume respondents who have purchased the product at least once will not forget the product.

**Non-Aware Trial**

**What's the probability consumers will try the product without previous media exposure?**

The probability of purchasing an item (*which can occur in states Non-Aware Trial, Aware Trial or Repeat) *is governed by two factors: Propensity and Opportunity.

Opportunity to purchase is based on Category and Distribution. It can be influenced by:

- External Factors - Distribution (item availability)
- Internal Factors - Category Purchase combining the probability consumers will purchase the category with choice share (probability that the consumers will purchase the item when they shop for the category) yields an important piece to estimate, the probability that consumers will purchase the product

Purchase Propensity is based on State, Choice Share at the corresponding state and Appeal on Shelf. It can be influenced by:

- External Factors - Persuasiveness of in-store presence (Price, Displays,etc)
- Internal Factors - State of Consumers (Non-Aware, Aware Non-Trier, Previous Purchasers)

**Aware Trial**

**What's the probability consumers who are aware of the product will try?**

The probability of purchasing an item (which can occur in states Non-Aware Trial, Aware Trial or Repeat) is governed by two factors: Propensity and Opportunity.

Opportunity to purchase is based on Category and Distribution. It can be influenced by:

- External Factors - Distribution (item availability)
- Internal Factors - Category Purchase combining the probability consumers will purchase the category with choice share (probability that the consumers will purchase the item when they shop for the category) yields an important piece to estimate, the probability that consumers will purchase the product

Purchase Propensity is based on State, Choice Share at the corresponding state and Appeal on Shelf. It can be influenced by:

- External Factors - Persuasiveness of in-store presence (Price, Displays,etc)
- Internal Factors - State of Consumers (Non-Aware, Aware Non-Trier, Previous Purchasers)

**Repeat**

**What's the probability consumers who have tried the product will repeat?**

The probability of purchasing an item (which can occur in states Non-Aware Trial, Aware Trial or Repeat) is governed by two factors: Propensity and Opportunity.

Opportunity to purchase is based on Category and Distribution. It can be influenced by:

- External Factors - Distribution (item availability)
- Internal Factors - Category Purchase combining the probability consumers will purchase the category with choice share (probability that the consumers will purchase the item when they shop for the category) yields an important piece to estimate, the probability that consumers will purchase the product

Purchase Propensity is based on State, Choice Share at the corresponding state and Appeal on Shelf. It can be influenced by:

- External Factors - Persuasiveness of in-store presence (Price, Displays,etc)
- Internal Factors - State of Consumers (Non-Aware, Aware Non-Trier, Previous Purchasers)